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Inside Wall St. Two Arrows

Benefit of the Doubt
by WealthEffect Staff

 
 
Instead of worrying about the inevitable volatility of stocks, you should remind yourself of one of the most important, though rarely discussed, concepts in successful investing: "the benefit of the doubt". It is in times of great uncertainty that the greatest opportunities — and risks — emerge, and it is in these times that investors must determine the courage of their convictions.

Every company has a tempting story to tell when times are good — it's easy to believe that the news will stay favorable and the company's stock will continue rising. The higher the stock price, however, the more dependent it is on a continuing supply of upbeat news. If that supply should turn from positive to negative, as it will for every company at one time or another, the stock price will head south — and, with fear being a stronger emotion than greed, when a stock falls out of favor its price can decline with a ferocity that would have seemed unimaginable only days or weeks earlier.

It's then, when a stock you own gets hammered, that you can appreciate the true value of an exceptional company. As Mark Twain wrote in a short story, "a virtue which has not been tested in the fire is no virtue at all". When your capital gains turn quickly into capital losses, when the self-styled experts take to the airwaves and newspapers to tell you why you should sell and "cut your losses", when you can't predict how (or if) the current crisis will end, you will have one question to answer: can I give this company the benefit of the doubt?

For most companies, the answer is no. They might recover from whatever crises they're facing — with their stocks rebounding as well — but you can't say with relative certainty that they will. And if you're wrong, you can compound losses upon losses as you buy more stock all the way down. On the other hand, you might be cautious, unwilling to add to your position as the price declines, only to leave behind a boatload of potential profits when the company surprises you by recovering and even prospering.

"Buy low, sell high" is a wonderful concept, one which never fails in hindsight. It's when you have to look forward that things get tricky. To get past that hurdle known as reality there is, however, a relatively easy solution: focus on companies with sustainable competitive advantages supported by strong cash flows... companies which deserve the benefit of the doubt. Here are three current examples:

 
 

Dell (23.28) has declined almost 25% this year and the shares are 60% off their 2000 highs when earnings were 50% lower than this year. The company has been misfiring for many quarters now but the business model still makes sense, its free cash flow significantly exceeds its earnings — see how many growth companies you can find which are doing that! — and the stock is selling at 15x next year's projected free cash flow (and that's after taking a haircut for option expense). As the company’s former pitchman, Steve, might say now that he's old enough to be a stockbroker: "Dude, are you getting some Dell?”
 
 

If Dell remains a leading example of online marketing, Home Depot (36.50) is one of the best of the bricks-and-mortar retailers. Since the beginning of 2000, a year in which the company earned $1.10 per share, the stock has declined almost 50% even though earnings per share this year will approach $3.00. Robert Nardelli, who took over as CEO in 2000, has had a challenging tenure on the job, but his focus on emphasizing financial discipline should have long-term benefits for long-suffering shareholders. At present, people seem more interested in the uncertain implications of the deflating housing bubble than in the compelling price/earnings multiple for this ongoing growth story. The company talks about "Building Platforms for Growth" on the cover of its annual report... and while that less-than-catchy slogan won't ever become the title of a country-western song, it's good advice for investors.
 
 

Time Warner's stock price (17.23) is a small fraction of what it was 6 years ago, and yet the company owns some of the most enduring entertainment brands in the world. Sure, AOL has been one the great disappointments in business history, but this "problem child" is only 20% of earnings and is now attracting interest from Microsoft, Yahoo, Google and Comcast. Meanwhile, the whole of Time Warner has attracted the noisy attention from a powerful and motivated investor, Carl Icahn — it seems that the excellent efforts of CEO Richard Parsons and his two deputies, Jeffrey Bewkes and Don Logan, have not been as shareholder-focused as Icahn would want. Stay tuned.
 
 
Sure, it's easy to get disheartened by volatile stocks and unending corporate scandals, but the best revenge is in grabbing the opportunities which present themselves. The fears of the financial markets rarely come to pass — as the legendary hedge-fund manager George Soros noted in his first book, in a free market the fears themselves are self-correcting.

Sixteen years ago, I had the opportunity to interview several of the best investors in the world for a chapter in my first book. In one of these interviews, the late great strategist Michael Aronstein made a classic point. "Very few people can actually earn money simply by utilizing their own judgment," he said. "And what we're talking about in investing is earning monetary rewards from the use of judgment as opposed to hard physical labor." Successful investing can't be easy — otherwise we'd all be doing little else. Investing means competing against everyone else and against your own instincts, in particular the instincts to follow the crowd and to hope for quick profits.

It isn't pleasant leaning against the consensus, especially year after year, but you don't need to fight a battle in the dark. When there's discipline in finding companies worth the benefit of the doubt and in buying them when they're under fire, you've found yourself a formula for long-term success.

Dan Stone is the Director of Research for Steven Charles Capital and the founder of WealthEffect.com. He is also the author of "How to Invest in the Market" and of "April Fools: The Rise and Collapse of Drexel Burnham".